(FREE) PAINE IN THE MORNING: 8 things you need to know this Friday – February 25, 2022

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‘Freedom Will Prevail’: Biden Addresses Nation, Refuses To Sanction Putin Or Comment On China –  More than fifteen hours after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden held a press conference in the White House to discuss his administration’s response to Putin’s military attack.

Biden said that Putin acted “without justification,” and that the attack was a “premeditated” one that had been planned for months. Russia had rejected “every good faith effort” made by the U.S. and allies to address “mutual security concerns” through “dialogue,” which would have avoided “needless conflict” and “human suffering.” – READ MORE

John Kerry’s response to Ukraine invasion: ‘I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate’ – John Kerry cautioned Wednesday that Russia’s war on Ukraine will distract the international community from one of the Biden administration’s top national security priorities: climate change.

The former secretary of state and current U.S. special envoy for climate was discussing Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine during an interview on BBC Arabic when he said the war will have “massive emissions consequences” for the entire world. – READ MORE

Global Stocks, Futures Crash; Nasdaq In Bear Market, Oil Soars Above $105 On Russia Attack – U.S. stock index futures crashed along with global markets on Thursday as Russia’s assault on Ukraine sent investors fleeing risky assets, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was set to open in a bear market. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 2.9% by 7 a.m. in New York, having dropped as much as 3.6% earlier and signaling that the underlying gauge was poised to fall 20% from its November record high for the first time since the pandemic; the S&P 500 was down 2.23% or 98 points to, 4,214, while Dow futures lost 2.3%. The flight to safety saw the 10-year Treasury yield tumble 14 basis points to under 1.9%. Gold hit the highest since September 2020, while the dollar also spiked higher. – READ MORE

European NatGas Jumps 60% On Ukraine Turmoil – Conflict in Ukraine continues to send European energy prices higher Thursday morning.

Dutch TTF Gas Futures are up a staggering 60%, the most since 2005, in their fourth consecutive daily gain. – READ MORE

Record-High Global Food Prices Imminent As Edible Oil Soars – Edible oil prices soared this week, prompting fears that record-high food prices could be imminent. On Wednesday, soybean oil futures in Chicago hit their highest levels since 2008, and palm oil, the commodity used in thousands of food products, jumped to new highs.

Soybean prices increased 1.4% to 71 cents per pound, the highest level since 2008. US canola futures are also on the verge of an all-time high, and palm oil in Malaysia hit a new record high of $1,434 per ton. – READ MORE

Russia Offers Record Discount For Its Oil As Buyers Pause, Struggle To Finance – Three buyers of Russian crude oil have been unable to open letters of credit from Western banks to cover their purchases, four Reuters trading sources said on Thursday following the Russian attack on Ukraine.

As Julianne Geiger writes at OilPrice.com, banks are understandably hesitant to extend credit for purchases of Russian crude, given the current situation between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. – READ MORE

Rent-A-Center Gives Dire Update On State Of US Consumer – In the bottom-up hierarchy of retailers catering to the lowest rungs of US society, there is Dollar Tree and Dollar General, and somewhere in their immediate orbit, is Rent-a-Center, which caters to those Americans who can’t afford to purchase outright, and whose credit is too low to finance, and are thus stuck renting out any certain “aspirational” product – like, say, a microwave. In short, its captive audience is America’s lower and lower-middle classes.

And unfortunately for the US, it is this lowest ring on the social ladder that is now getting decimated.

After the close Rent-a-center reported earnings that were simply horrendous: the company said that in Q4 it generated adjusted EPS $1.08 which badly missed estimates of $1.61 on revenue of $1.17 billion, which also missed the estimate of $1.2 billion. But it was the company’s forecast that was catastrophic: the company now sees adjusted EPS of $4.50 to $5.00, far below the consensus estimate of $7.04; its revenue guidance of $4.45 billion to $4.60 billion was likewise a disaster compared to the estimate of $5.27 billion, with adjusted Ebitda in the $515 million to $565 million range, far below the estimate of $747.4 million. – READ MORE

Shipping Fuel Costs: The Unseen Enemy In The Fight Against Inflation – Bunker prices are on the rise. This is not news in itself: it would have been surprising if the price of one oil derivative was down when the prices of all others were up. Yet it is becoming a cause for concern as higher bunker costs push maritime transport costs higher.

With much of global trade relying precisely on maritime transport, higher prices are adding to already substantial inflationary pressures. And there doesn’t seem to be light at the end of this tunnel. – READ MORE